{"id":3265,"date":"2026-05-16T06:17:16","date_gmt":"2026-05-16T06:17:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/?p=3265"},"modified":"2026-05-16T06:17:16","modified_gmt":"2026-05-16T06:17:16","slug":"alarm-nga-shkencetaret-el-nino-mund-te-thyeje-rekordet-globale-te-temperaturave","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/?p=3265","title":{"rendered":"Alarm nga shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt: El Nino mund t\u00eb thyej\u00eb rekordet globale t\u00eb temperaturave"},"content":{"rendered":"
\n

Parashikimet m\u00eb t\u00eb reja tregojn\u00eb me nj\u00eb siguri t\u00eb lart\u00eb se fenomeni El Ni\u00f1o, i cili po formohet aktualisht n\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorin tropikal, mund t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb nga m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishmit e regjistruar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb.<\/strong> <\/p>\n

Shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb se kjo mund t\u00eb sjell\u00eb thyerje t\u00eb rekordeve globale t\u00eb temperaturave, por edhe pasoja t\u00eb r\u00ebnda humanitare n\u00eb shum\u00eb vende t\u00eb bot\u00ebs.<\/p>\n\n

Pjes\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha t\u00eb Oqeanit Paq\u00ebsor po ngrohen me ritme t\u00eb shpejta, nd\u00ebrsa t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat e publikuara k\u00ebt\u00eb jav\u00eb tregojn\u00eb se temperaturat e sip\u00ebrfaqes s\u00eb detit kan\u00eb arritur tashm\u00eb rreth 0.5 grad\u00eb Celsius mbi mesataren normale. <\/p>\n

Ky konsiderohet nj\u00eb nga treguesit kryesor\u00eb q\u00eb sinjalizon fillimin e fenomenit El Ni\u00f1o, shkruan BBC.<\/a><\/p>\n

Parashikimi m\u00eb i fundit<\/strong><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Pritet q\u00eb fenomeni El Ni\u00f1o t\u00eb forcohet gjat\u00eb muajve n\u00eb vijim, nd\u00ebrsa kulmin mund ta arrij\u00eb n\u00eb vjesht\u00eb, duke u shnd\u00ebrruar n\u00eb nj\u00eb El Ni\u00f1o shum\u00eb t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm, t\u00eb njohur si \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d. <\/p>\n

Shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt jan\u00eb t\u00eb shqet\u00ebsuar p\u00ebr ndikimin q\u00eb ai mund t\u00eb ket\u00eb n\u00eb motin global, p\u00ebrfshir\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb q\u00eb viti 2027 t\u00eb b\u00ebhet viti m\u00eb i nxeht\u00eb i regjistruar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Administrata Komb\u00ebtare Amerikane p\u00ebr Oqeanet dhe Atmosfer\u00ebn (NOAA) n\u00eb parashikimin e saj m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit njofton se El Ni\u00f1o pritet t\u00eb nis\u00eb brenda nj\u00eb muaji, transmeton Telegrafi. <\/p>\n

Sipas saj, ekziston nj\u00eb probabilitet prej dy t\u00eb tretash q\u00eb deri n\u00eb dimrin e ardhsh\u00ebm fenomeni t\u00eb b\u00ebhet i fort\u00eb ose edhe shum\u00eb i fort\u00eb. Ritmi i ngrohjes s\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorit tropikal gjat\u00eb jav\u00ebve t\u00eb fundit ka qen\u00eb jasht\u00ebzakonisht i shpejt\u00eb.<\/p>\n

Nathanial Johnson, meteorolog n\u00eb NOAA, e ka p\u00ebrshkruar k\u00ebt\u00eb si nj\u00eb \u201cdukuri t\u00eb rrall\u00eb\u201d, n\u00ebse vazhdon me k\u00ebt\u00eb rit\u00ebm \u2014 kalimi nga fenomeni La Ni\u00f1a, q\u00eb dominonte gjat\u00eb dimrit, n\u00eb nj\u00eb El Ni\u00f1o potencialisht shum\u00eb t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm brenda vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb viti.<\/p>\n

Edhe Byroja Australiane e Meteorologjis\u00eb (BoM) parashikon zhvillimin e El Ni\u00f1os, por p\u00ebrdor kritere m\u00eb t\u00eb rrepta p\u00ebr shpalljen e tij. Sipas BoM, temperaturat e sip\u00ebrfaqes s\u00eb detit n\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorin tropikal duhet t\u00eb jen\u00eb t\u00eb pakt\u00ebn 0.8 grad\u00eb Celsius mbi mesataren, si dhe duhet t\u00eb regjistrohet ndryshimi i drejtimit t\u00eb er\u00ebrave tregtare n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn per\u00ebndimore t\u00eb oqeanit. Ky konsiderohet nj\u00eb tregues se ngrohja e oqeanit ka filluar t\u00eb ndikoj\u00eb edhe atmosfer\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

\u00c7ka \u00ebsht\u00eb \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"\/ <\/p>\n

Nd\u00ebrsa fenomeni El Ni\u00f1o zhvillohet n\u00eb gjith\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorin tropikal, meteorolog\u00ebt po monitorojn\u00eb ve\u00e7an\u00ebrisht rajonin e njohur si Ni\u00f1o 3.4. Nj\u00eb El Ni\u00f1o i fort\u00eb, apo i ashtuquajturi \u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d, shpallet kur mesatarja tremujore e temperatur\u00ebs s\u00eb sip\u00ebrfaqes s\u00eb detit n\u00eb at\u00eb zon\u00eb tejkalon mesataren afatgjat\u00eb me m\u00eb shum\u00eb se 1.5 grad\u00eb Celsius. <\/p>\n

Parashikimet e Qendr\u00ebs Evropiane p\u00ebr Parashikime Afatmesme t\u00eb Motit (ECMWF), NOAA-s amerikane dhe Byros\u00eb Australiane t\u00eb Meteorologjis\u00eb (BoM) jan\u00eb kryesisht n\u00eb p\u00ebrputhje me nj\u00ebra-tjetr\u00ebn.<\/p>\n

N\u00eb parashikimin m\u00eb t\u00eb fundit t\u00eb ECMWF-s\u00eb, m\u00eb shum\u00eb se gjysma e modeleve t\u00eb saj parashikojn\u00eb nj\u00eb rritje t\u00eb temperaturave mbi 2.5 grad\u00eb Celsius deri n\u00eb vjesht\u00eb. <\/p>\n

Sipas meteorologut, Nathanial Johnson, \u00e7do vler\u00eb mbi k\u00ebt\u00eb prag do t\u00eb konsiderohej nj\u00eb \u201cngjarje me p\u00ebrmasa historike\u201d. Edhe parashikimet e BoM tregojn\u00eb me nj\u00eb siguri t\u00eb lart\u00eb mund\u00ebsin\u00eb e zhvillimit t\u00eb nj\u00eb El Ni\u00f1o shum\u00eb t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm m\u00eb von\u00eb gjat\u00eb k\u00ebtij viti.<\/p>\n

Disa modele klimatike sugjerojn\u00eb madje se rritja e temperatur\u00ebs mund t\u00eb kaloj\u00eb 3 grad\u00eb Celsius, duke tejkaluar rekordin e deritanish\u00ebm prej 2.7 grad\u00ebsh t\u00eb regjistruar n\u00eb vitin 1877. Megjithat\u00eb, duhet pasur parasysh se n\u00eb at\u00eb periudh\u00eb mund\u00ebsit\u00eb e monitorimit ishin shum\u00eb t\u00eb kufizuara, ndaj edhe t\u00eb dh\u00ebnat konsiderohen m\u00eb pak t\u00eb sigurta.<\/p>\n

El Ni\u00f1o i vitit 1877 zgjati rreth 18 muaj dhe shkaktoi pasoja katastrofike n\u00eb mbar\u00eb bot\u00ebn. Ai solli that\u00ebsira ekstreme dhe uri n\u00eb Azi, Brazil dhe Afrik\u00eb, duke marr\u00eb miliona jet\u00eb njer\u00ebzish, nd\u00ebrsa n\u00eb Peru shkaktoi p\u00ebrmbytje shkat\u00ebrruese. Super El Ni\u00f1o i fundit ndodhi n\u00eb vitet 2015-2016, kur anomalit\u00eb e temperatur\u00ebs arrit\u00ebn deri n\u00eb 2.4 grad\u00eb Celsius.<\/p>\n

Cilat jan\u00eb pasojat?<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"\/ <\/p>\n

Me rritjen e temperaturave n\u00eb pjes\u00ebn lindore t\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorit, ndikimi m\u00eb i madh i El Ni\u00f1os \u00ebsht\u00eb rritja e temperatur\u00ebs mesatare globale, zakonisht me rreth 0.2 grad\u00eb Celsius. <\/p>\n

Liz Stephens, profesore n\u00eb University of Reading, deklaroi p\u00ebr BBC se \u201cvitin e ardhsh\u00ebm ka shum\u00eb gjasa t\u00eb p\u00ebrballemi me temperatura rekord n\u00eb nivel global, sidomos n\u00ebse b\u00ebhet fjal\u00eb p\u00ebr nj\u00eb El Ni\u00f1o shum\u00eb t\u00eb fuqish\u00ebm\u201d.<\/p>\n

Megjith\u00ebse \u00e7do El Ni\u00f1o \u00ebsht\u00eb i ndrysh\u00ebm, ekzistojn\u00eb disa modele tipike t\u00eb ndikimit t\u00eb tij. P\u00ebrmbytjet jan\u00eb t\u00eb zakonshme n\u00eb veri t\u00eb Perus\u00eb dhe jug t\u00eb Ekuadorit, por mund t\u00eb prekin edhe Afrik\u00ebn Lindore, Azin\u00eb Qendrore dhe pjes\u00ebt jugore t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs s\u00eb Veriut. <\/p>\n

N\u00eb an\u00ebn tjet\u00ebr, El Ni\u00f1o zakonisht ul aktivitetin e stuhive tropikale n\u00eb Atlantik. Parashikuesit e motit tashm\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb se sezoni i uraganeve n\u00eb Atlantik k\u00ebt\u00eb vit mund t\u00eb jet\u00eb m\u00eb i qet\u00eb se zakonisht.<\/p>\n

\u201cEdhe pse kjo ting\u00ebllon si nj\u00eb lajm i mir\u00eb, p\u00ebr Amerik\u00ebn Qendrore do t\u00eb thot\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb pak reshje dhe mund\u00ebsi m\u00eb t\u00eb m\u00ebdha p\u00ebr that\u00ebsira\u201d, shpjegoi profesorja Stephens. <\/p>\n

Gjithashtu, rritet rreziku p\u00ebr that\u00ebsira dhe zjarre pyjore n\u00eb pjes\u00eb t\u00eb Australis\u00eb, Indonezis\u00eb dhe veriut t\u00eb Amerik\u00ebs s\u00eb Jugut, duke k\u00ebrc\u00ebnuar bujq\u00ebsin\u00eb dhe furnizimin global me ushqim.<\/p>\n

Priten pasoja t\u00eb m\u00ebdha humanitare<\/strong><\/p>\n

\"\"\/ <\/p>\n

Mbyllja e Ngushtic\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit tashm\u00eb po pengon shp\u00ebrndarjen e plehrave artificiale, nd\u00ebrsa \u00e7mimet e tyre kan\u00eb sh\u00ebnuar rritje. Kjo pritet t\u00eb reflektohet n\u00eb muajt e ardhsh\u00ebm me prodhim m\u00eb t\u00eb ul\u00ebt bujq\u00ebsor, furnizim m\u00eb t\u00eb kufizuar me ushqime dhe rritje t\u00eb \u00e7mimeve.<\/p>\n

\u201cEdhe tani m\u00eb shum\u00eb njer\u00ebz po jetojn\u00eb n\u00eb varf\u00ebri, dhe n\u00ebse p\u00ebr shkak t\u00eb that\u00ebsirave apo p\u00ebrmbytjeve t\u00eb shkaktuara nga El Ni\u00f1o vjen deri te ulja e rendimenteve bujq\u00ebsore, at\u00ebher\u00eb \u00e7mimet do t\u00eb rriten edhe m\u00eb shum\u00eb. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, k\u00ebt\u00eb vit mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrballemi me pasoja shum\u00eb t\u00eb r\u00ebnda humanitare, sidomos n\u00ebse vazhdon kriza n\u00eb Lindjen e Mesme\u201d, tha profesorja Liz Stephens.<\/p>\n

Megjith\u00ebse ndikimet e drejtp\u00ebrdrejta t\u00eb El Ni\u00f1os n\u00eb motin e Evrop\u00ebs mbeten m\u00eb pak t\u00eb sigurta, shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt klimatik\u00eb nga Met Office sugjerojn\u00eb se vitet me El Ni\u00f1o jan\u00eb nj\u00eb nga faktor\u00ebt q\u00eb mund t\u00eb rrisin rrezikun p\u00ebr dimra m\u00eb t\u00eb ftoht\u00eb. \/Telegrafi\/<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Parashikimet m\u00eb t\u00eb reja tregojn\u00eb me nj\u00eb siguri t\u00eb lart\u00eb se fenomeni El Ni\u00f1o, i cili po formohet aktualisht n\u00eb Paq\u00ebsorin tropikal, mund t\u00eb shnd\u00ebrrohet n\u00eb nj\u00eb nga m\u00eb t\u00eb fuqishmit e regjistruar ndonj\u00ebher\u00eb. Shkenc\u00ebtar\u00ebt paralajm\u00ebrojn\u00eb se kjo mund t\u00eb sjell\u00eb thyerje t\u00eb rekordeve globale t\u00eb temperaturave, por edhe pasoja t\u00eb r\u00ebnda humanitare n\u00eb shum\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":3266,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"tmauthors":[],"class_list":{"0":"post-3265","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-world"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3265","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3265"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3265\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/3266"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3265"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3265"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3265"},{"taxonomy":"tmauthors","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftmauthors&post=3265"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}