<\/p>\n
Rafael Floqi<\/strong><\/p>\n Kriza e fundit n\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb konflikt rajonal mes Iranit, Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara dhe aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre. Ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrim dramatik p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn: epoka e deteve t\u00eb sigurta po p\u00ebrfundon. N\u00ebse dikur oqeanet konsideroheshin arterie t\u00eb garantuara t\u00eb tregtis\u00eb globale, sot ato po shnd\u00ebrrohen n\u00eb fusha beteje ekonomike, teknologjike dhe ushtarake. Hormuzi \u00ebsht\u00eb sinjali m\u00eb i qart\u00eb se globalizimi modern ka nj\u00eb themb\u00ebr Akili: ngushticat ujore. Nj\u00eb grusht korridoresh t\u00eb ngushta detare mbajn\u00eb mbi shpin\u00eb ekonomin\u00eb e planetit. Dhe pik\u00ebrisht aty po p\u00ebrqendrohet tani rivaliteti i madh i fuqive bot\u00ebrore. N\u00eb momentin kur Irani k\u00ebrc\u00ebnoi mbylljen e Hormuzit dhe p\u00ebrdori dron\u00eb, raketa kund\u00ebr anijeve dhe mina detare p\u00ebr t\u00eb frik\u00ebsuar transportin nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar, tregjet globale reaguan menj\u00ebher\u00eb. \u00c7mimi i naft\u00ebs u l\u00ebkund, siguracionet detare u rrit\u00ebn dhe kompanit\u00eb e transportit nis\u00ebn t\u00eb kalkulojn\u00eb devijime t\u00eb kushtueshme. Kjo ndodhi edhe pa nj\u00eb bllokad\u00eb totale. Vet\u00eb frika mjaftoi p\u00ebr t\u00eb tronditur ekonomin\u00eb bot\u00ebrore. Ky \u00ebsht\u00eb ndryshimi m\u00eb i madh i epok\u00ebs moderne: nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb e nevojshme t\u00eb pushtosh territore p\u00ebr t\u00eb shkaktuar kriz\u00eb globale. Mjafton t\u00eb kontrollosh nj\u00eb pik\u00eb kalimi.<\/p>\n Ngushticat, arteriet e brishta t\u00eb globalizimit<\/strong><\/p>\n Bota moderne \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebrtuar mbi l\u00ebvizjen e lir\u00eb t\u00eb mallrave, energjis\u00eb dhe teknologjis\u00eb. Por ky sistem gjigant mb\u00ebshtetet n\u00eb disa korridore t\u00eb ngushta detare. Hormuzi, Malaka, Bosfori, Bab el-Mandebi, Kanali i Suezit dhe Ngushtica e Tajvanit jan\u00eb si valvulat e zemr\u00ebs s\u00eb ekonomis\u00eb globale. N\u00ebse nj\u00ebra bllokohet, gjith\u00eb sistemi p\u00ebson tronditje. Hormuzi \u00ebsht\u00eb nd\u00ebr m\u00eb kritik\u00ebt. Nj\u00eb pjes\u00eb e madhe e naft\u00ebs bot\u00ebrore kalon aty \u00e7do dit\u00eb. P\u00ebr dekada, ekonomia globale \u00ebsht\u00eb mb\u00ebshtetur n\u00eb supozimin se kjo rrug\u00eb do t\u00eb mbetej e hapur. Por kriza aktuale tregoi se ky supozim nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb m\u00eb i sigurt. Ajo q\u00eb e b\u00ebn situat\u00ebn edhe m\u00eb alarmante \u00ebsht\u00eb fakti se teknologjia moderne i ka dh\u00ebn\u00eb fuqive rajonale aft\u00ebsi disproporcionale. Dron\u00ebt, raketat bregdetare, mjetet pa pilot dhe minat detare jan\u00eb relativisht t\u00eb lira krahasuar me flotat tradicionale detare. Megjithat\u00eb, ato mund t\u00eb paralizojn\u00eb superfuqit\u00eb dhe t\u00eb shkaktojn\u00eb panik global. N\u00eb thelb, lufta detare \u00ebsht\u00eb demokratizuar.<\/p>\n N\u00eb koh\u00eb krizash, ligji shpesh humbet p\u00ebrball\u00eb forc\u00ebs<\/strong><\/p>\n Pas Luft\u00ebs s\u00eb Dyt\u00eb Bot\u00ebrore, Per\u00ebndimi nd\u00ebrtoi nj\u00eb rend nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar t\u00eb bazuar mbi lirin\u00eb e lundrimit. Oqeanet konsideroheshin hap\u00ebsira t\u00eb p\u00ebrbashk\u00ebta dhe rrug\u00ebt detare duhej t\u00eb mbroheshin nga ligji nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar. Konventa e OKB-s\u00eb mbi t\u00eb Drejt\u00ebn e Detit u b\u00eb themeli juridik i k\u00ebtij rendi. Por Hormuzi tregoi se n\u00eb koh\u00eb krizash, ligji shpesh humbet p\u00ebrball\u00eb forc\u00ebs. Irani provoi t\u00eb vendoste kontrolle dhe tarifa tranziti, nd\u00ebrsa deklaratat amerikane p\u00ebr bllokad\u00eb ngrit\u00ebn pyetje serioze juridike mbi kufijt\u00eb e p\u00ebrdorimit t\u00eb forc\u00ebs n\u00eb ngushticat nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtare. Kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb tep\u00ebr e rrezikshme sepse krijon precedent. N\u00ebse fuqit\u00eb e m\u00ebdha fillojn\u00eb t\u00eb justifikojn\u00eb kufizime selektive t\u00eb kalimit detar, at\u00ebher\u00eb vet\u00eb koncepti i \u201cliris\u00eb s\u00eb deteve\u201d fillon t\u00eb shembet. Historia tregon se kur rrug\u00ebt tregtare militarizohen, ekonomia globale hyn n\u00eb epoka destabiliteti. Luft\u00ebrat detare t\u00eb shekujve t\u00eb kaluar shpesh nisnin pik\u00ebrisht nga kontrolli i korridoreve ujore. Sot rreziku \u00ebsht\u00eb edhe m\u00eb i madh, sepse ekonomia globale \u00ebsht\u00eb shum\u00eb m\u00eb e nd\u00ebrvarur.<\/p>\n Nga Hormuzi te Malaka, frika e Kin\u00ebs<\/strong><\/p>\n N\u00ebse Hormuzi \u00ebsht\u00eb gryka energjetike e Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme, Ngushtica e Malak\u00ebs \u00ebsht\u00eb mushk\u00ebria ekonomike e Azis\u00eb. Kjo rrug\u00eb e ngusht\u00eb lidh Oqeanin Indian me Paq\u00ebsorin dhe transporton afro 40 p\u00ebr qind t\u00eb tregtis\u00eb globale dhe shumic\u00ebn e importeve energjetike t\u00eb Kin\u00ebs. P\u00ebr Pekinin, kjo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb dob\u00ebsi strategjike ekzistenciale. Ish-presidenti kinez, Hu Jintao, e quajti dikur k\u00ebt\u00eb problem \u201cDilema e Malak\u00ebs\u201d. Kina e di se n\u00eb rast konflikti, nj\u00eb bllokad\u00eb ose destabilizim i k\u00ebsaj ngushtice mund ta gjunj\u00ebzoj\u00eb ekonomikisht. Prandaj Pekini po investon masivisht n\u00eb rrug\u00eb alternative: porte n\u00eb Oqeanin Indian, korridore tok\u00ebsore p\u00ebrmes Azis\u00eb Qendrore dhe Rusis\u00eb, si dhe rrug\u00eb arktike. Hormuzi vet\u00ebm sa e ka rritur k\u00ebt\u00eb ankth strategjik. Por rreziku nuk prek vet\u00ebm Kin\u00ebn. Nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb n\u00eb Malak\u00eb do t\u00eb shkat\u00ebrronte zinxhir\u00ebt global\u00eb t\u00eb furnizimit. Fabrikat n\u00eb Azi do t\u00eb mbeteshin pa l\u00ebnd\u00eb t\u00eb para, tregjet europiane do t\u00eb p\u00ebrballeshin me mungesa dhe ekonomia amerikane do t\u00eb goditej r\u00ebnd\u00eb. N\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb t\u00eb globalizuar, nj\u00eb ngushtic\u00eb e bllokuar mund t\u00eb b\u00ebhet nj\u00eb recesion global.<\/p>\n Tajvani, pika m\u00eb e rrezikshme e planetit<\/strong><\/p>\n Megjithat\u00eb, rreziku m\u00eb i madh nuk q\u00ebndron te Hormuzi apo Malaka.<\/p>\n Ai q\u00ebndron tek Ngushtica e Tajvanit. N\u00ebse Hormuzi kontrollon naft\u00ebn, Tajvani kontrollon teknologjin\u00eb. Ishulli prodhon shumic\u00ebn e gjysm\u00ebp\u00ebr\u00e7uesve m\u00eb t\u00eb avancuar n\u00eb bot\u00eb \u2013 mikro\u00e7ipat pa t\u00eb cil\u00ebt nuk funksionojn\u00eb telefonat, kompjuter\u00ebt, makinat moderne, avion\u00ebt dhe sistemet ushtarake. Nj\u00eb bllokad\u00eb e Tajvanit nuk do t\u00eb ishte thjesht kriz\u00eb ushtarake. Ajo do t\u00eb paralizonte ekonomin\u00eb dixhitale globale. Sipas analizave ekonomike, nj\u00eb konflikt n\u00eb Tajvan mund t\u00eb zhduk\u00eb triliona dollar\u00eb nga ekonomia bot\u00ebrore. Fabrikat do t\u00eb ndalonin prodhimin, tregjet financiare do t\u00eb tronditeshin dhe industria teknologjike do t\u00eb hynte n\u00eb kriz\u00eb historike. P\u00ebr k\u00ebt\u00eb arsye, Hormuzi po shihet nga strateg\u00ebt aziatik\u00eb si nj\u00eb prov\u00eb gjenerale e s\u00eb ardhmes. N\u00ebse Irani mund t\u00eb sfidoj\u00eb rendin detar n\u00eb Gjirin Persik, at\u00ebher\u00eb Kina mund t\u00eb tundohet t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb taktika t\u00eb ngjashme n\u00eb Tajvan apo n\u00eb Detin e Kin\u00ebs Jugore.<\/p>\n Lufta e re, kontrolli i kalimit<\/strong><\/p>\n Bota po hyn gradualisht n\u00eb nj\u00eb epok\u00eb t\u00eb re gjeopolitike: luft\u00ebn p\u00ebr kontrollin e korridoreve. N\u00eb shekujt XIX dhe XX fuqit\u00eb luftonin p\u00ebr territore dhe koloni. N\u00eb shekullin XXI ato po luftojn\u00eb p\u00ebr rrug\u00ebt e kalimit. Kush kontrollon ngushticat kontrollon ekonomin\u00eb. Kush kontrollon ekonomin\u00eb, ushtron presion politik global. N\u00eb k\u00ebt\u00eb loj\u00eb, edhe shtetet m\u00eb t\u00eb vogla mund t\u00eb fitojn\u00eb ndikim disproporcional. Irani e tregoi k\u00ebt\u00eb qart\u00eb. Edhe pa qen\u00eb superfuqi detare, ai arriti t\u00eb trondit\u00eb tregjet bot\u00ebrore. Kjo krijon nj\u00eb precedent t\u00eb friksh\u00ebm. Shtete t\u00eb tjera mund t\u00eb tundohen t\u00eb p\u00ebrdorin taktika t\u00eb ngjashme: tarifa tranziti, k\u00ebrc\u00ebnime bllokade, kontrolle selektive apo militarizim t\u00eb kalimeve detare. Deti po shnd\u00ebrrohet gradualisht nga hap\u00ebsir\u00eb tregtare n\u00eb arm\u00eb gjeopolitike.<\/p>\n Rreziku i \u201cshantazhit detar\u201d<\/strong><\/p>\n Nj\u00eb nga pasojat m\u00eb t\u00eb rrezikshme t\u00eb kriz\u00ebs s\u00eb Hormuzit \u00ebsht\u00eb normalizimi i shantazhit detar. N\u00ebse komuniteti nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar toleron p\u00ebrdorimin e ngushticave si instrument presioni, at\u00ebher\u00eb nes\u00ebr \u00e7do kriz\u00eb rajonale mund t\u00eb kthehet n\u00eb kriz\u00eb globale. Nj\u00eb qeveri populiste mund t\u00eb k\u00ebrkoj\u00eb tarifa t\u00eb reja kalimi. Nj\u00eb konflikt rajonal mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdoret p\u00ebr t\u00eb bllokuar tregtin\u00eb. Nj\u00eb fuqi e madhe mund t\u00eb p\u00ebrdor\u00eb \u201csigurin\u00eb komb\u00ebtare\u201d si justifikim p\u00ebr kufizime tranziti. Kjo do t\u00eb thot\u00eb fund i globalizimit t\u00eb lir\u00eb q\u00eb ka dominuar dekadat e fundit. N\u00eb nj\u00eb bot\u00eb ku \u00e7do ngushtic\u00eb mund t\u00eb militarizohet, kompanit\u00eb do t\u00eb k\u00ebrkojn\u00eb rrug\u00eb alternative m\u00eb t\u00eb shtrenjta, shtetet do t\u00eb magazinojn\u00eb rezerva strategjike dhe ekonomia globale do t\u00eb b\u00ebhet m\u00eb e fragmentuar. N\u00eb fund, kostoja do t\u00eb paguhet nga qytetar\u00ebt e zakonsh\u00ebm p\u00ebrmes \u00e7mimeve m\u00eb t\u00eb larta, inflacionit dhe krizave ekonomike.<\/p>\n Epoka e pasiguris\u00eb detare<\/strong><\/p>\n Hormuzi nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb konflikt i Lindjes s\u00eb Mesme. Ai \u00ebsht\u00eb simboli i nj\u00eb bote q\u00eb po ndryshon me shpejt\u00ebsi. Epoka kur detet konsideroheshin korridore t\u00eb sigurta po mbaron. N\u00eb vend t\u00eb saj po lind nj\u00eb epok\u00eb ku ngushticat jan\u00eb pika presioni, ku dron\u00ebt dhe raketat mund t\u00eb tronditin ekonomin\u00eb globale dhe ku ligji nd\u00ebrkomb\u00ebtar sfidohet nga logjika brutale e forc\u00ebs. Paralajm\u00ebrimi \u00ebsht\u00eb i qart\u00eb: n\u00ebse bota nuk arrin t\u00eb mbroj\u00eb lirin\u00eb e lundrimit si parim universal, at\u00ebher\u00eb krizat e ardhshme nuk do t\u00eb kufizohen vet\u00ebm n\u00eb Hormuz. Ato mund t\u00eb shp\u00ebrthejn\u00eb n\u00eb Malak\u00eb, n\u00eb Tajvan, n\u00eb Detin e Kin\u00ebs Jugore, n\u00eb Bosfor apo n\u00eb Arktik. Dhe at\u00ebher\u00eb nuk do t\u00eb flasim m\u00eb p\u00ebr konflikte rajonale, por p\u00ebr nj\u00eb kriz\u00eb globale t\u00eb rendit bot\u00ebror. \/Gazeta \u201cPanorama\u201d\/<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" Rafael Floqi Kriza e fundit n\u00eb Ngushtic\u00ebn e Hormuzit nuk \u00ebsht\u00eb vet\u00ebm nj\u00eb konflikt rajonal mes Iranit, Shteteve t\u00eb Bashkuara dhe aleat\u00ebve t\u00eb tyre. Ajo \u00ebsht\u00eb nj\u00eb paralajm\u00ebrim dramatik p\u00ebr t\u00eb gjith\u00eb bot\u00ebn: epoka e deteve t\u00eb sigurta po p\u00ebrfundon. N\u00ebse dikur oqeanet konsideroheshin arterie t\u00eb garantuara t\u00eb tregtis\u00eb globale, sot ato po shnd\u00ebrrohen n\u00eb […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":4863,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[15],"tags":[],"tmauthors":[],"class_list":["post-4862","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-world"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4862","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4862"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4862\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/4863"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4862"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4862"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4862"},{"taxonomy":"tmauthors","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/illyrianinfo.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftmauthors&post=4862"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}