SpaceX’s Starship just turned 10 years old. When will it go to Mars?

Yesterday marked a historic milestone for space exploration: SpaceX’s Starship spacecraft successfully reached Earth orbit for the first time while carrying the next generation of Starlink satellites.

Yet behind this technological victory, a lively debate is unfolding in the space community: Are commercial missions and lunar commitments shifting Elon Musk’s focus away from his primary goal—Mars?

A Decade of Evolution: From a Concept on Paper to Steel in Orbit

A decade ago, Elon Musk first unveiled his vision for a giant interplanetary spacecraft, then called the ITS (Interplanetary Transport System). That original carbon-fiber design underwent drastic changes, eventually evolving into the stainless-steel vehicle we know today as Starship.

The journey to orbit was anything but linear:

• Early Testing (2019–2021): Early prototypes performed short suborbital hops in South Texas. After several spectacular explosions, the SN15 prototype achieved the first successful high-altitude landing.
• The NASA Partnership: That same year, NASA selected Starship as the human landing system for its Artemis missions to return astronauts to the lunar surface.
• Full-Stack Flights and Booster Catch: Following the loss of the first fully integrated flight in 2023, SpaceX achieved major breakthroughs in 2024—including the historic first capture of the Super Heavy booster mid-air using the launch tower’s mechanical arms.
• V3 Iterations and Orbital Success: Following key structural upgrades, the newest Starship V3 iteration finally demonstrated full orbital capability, proving the maturity of the architecture.

Is Starship a Business Workhorse or an Interplanetary Dream?

Space industry experts remain divided over SpaceX’s immediate priorities:

The Commercial View: The Rocket as an Economic Engine

Matija Renčelj of the European Space Policy Institute (ESPI) views the vehicle primarily as a commercial tool.

“The rocket is the means, not the end,” Renčelj notes.

From a business standpoint, Starship’s most urgent role is deploying Starlink V3 satellites. These next-gen spacecraft are larger and heavier than previous models and require Starship’s massive payload capacity to deploy efficiently. Furthermore, fulfilling commitments for NASA’s Artemis program provides vital institutional backing and financial stability.

The Visionary View: The Moon as a Proving Ground for Mars

On the other hand, Joseph Gonzalez, an aerospace engineering professor at the University of Illinois, maintains that Mars remains the ultimate destination.

“SpaceX continues to stress making humanity multiplanetary,” says Gonzalez.

In his view, lunar missions act as a ideal proving ground—allowing engineers to identify and resolve complex operational challenges just days from Earth before committing humans to a multi-month journey to Mars.

The Major Technical Hurdle: Orbital Gas Stations

To reach the Moon or Mars, Starship must conquer one of the greatest engineering hurdles in spaceflight: large-scale cryogenic propellant transfer in orbit.

For deep-space journeys, Starship must be refueled in Earth orbit by “tanker” ships. This requires transferring supercooled liquid propellants in microgravity conditions—a capability that has never been demonstrated at this scale.

When Are We Heading to the Red Planet?

While earlier projections targeted an uncrewed Mars launch by 2026, the remaining development milestones—specifically orbital refueling—make that timeline unfeasible.

Because optimal orbital alignment between Earth and Mars occurs only once every 26 months, the next realistic window for a Mars mission opens in late 2028. In the meantime, SpaceX remains focused on proving orbital refueling, deploying its satellite constellation, and delivering on its commitments to return humans to the Moon.